While most teams get conservative in 2nd-and-short situations, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers go deep .
Derek Horstmeyer, an assistant finance professor at George Mason University, began a recent research project about football with a simple premise: NFL teams are rational.
There are many reasons to believe this should be true. NFL teams are worth billions of dollars, pay their players hundreds of millions of dollars and have every incentive to outsmart their opponents to try to win a Super Bowl.
But Horstmeyer, who has never worked in football, quickly came to a surprising conclusion. Teams may be getting smarter, but they’re still amazingly stupid.
Horstmeyer tested one of football’s oldest adages—that 2nd-and-short is an offense’s dream because it gives a coach the unique opportunity to try something bold with minimal consequences. Even if the play fails, the probability of moving the chains on third down is still high. It’s like getting to eat an ice cream sundae without any of the calories.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 15, 2019